Category Archives: Economics

This Week in the Economy: May 19–23, 2025

Centering the Black Economic Lens on Federal Reserve Movements and Economic Indicators


Monday, May 19

  • New York Fed President John Williams Speech (8:45 AM ET)

Williams’ comments on inflation and growth will be closely watched. As a key voice in rate-setting, any hawkish signals could delay relief for African American borrowers already paying higher credit premiums.

  • Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson Speech (8:45 AM ET)

Jefferson, the Fed’s first African American Vice Chair, may emphasize equitable employment and inclusive policy. His framing will matter for HBCUs and Black communities relying on federal support and labor stability.

  • U.S. Leading Economic Indicators (Apr): -0.9% (Prev: -0.7%)

A steeper decline signals weakening momentum. This typically translates into fewer job openings, reduced wage growth, and tighter lending—especially damaging for African American workers and businesses still lagging in recovery.


Tuesday, May 20

  • Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin Speech (9:00 AM ET)

Barkin’s region includes southern states with high African American populations. His insights could indicate whether regional policy and economic support are filtering down to underserved communities.

  • Boston Fed President Susan Collins at Fed Listens (9:30 AM ET)

One of the few women of color leading a Fed bank, Collins’ presence at Fed Listens may bring attention to community feedback. Expect mentions of wealth inequality, which remains sharpest for Black Americans.

  • St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem Speech (1:00 PM ET)

As a new voice in the Fed, Musalem’s outlook could influence policy leanings that shape access to capital—particularly relevant in Missouri and the Mississippi Delta region, home to several HBCUs and Black rural communities.

  • Fed Governor Adriana Kugler Speech (5:00 PM ET)

Kugler’s focus on inclusive employment metrics may touch on disparities in Black unemployment and wage stagnation, helping guide equitable macroeconomic planning.


Wednesday, May 21

  • Fed Listens Event: Barkin & Bowman (12:15 PM ET)

These sessions are critical opportunities to elevate Black institutional voices—including HBCUs, Black banks, and civil society groups. The listening format also reflects whether the Fed is serious about closing racial wealth gaps through policy.


Thursday, May 22

  • Initial Jobless Claims (May 17): 230,000 (Prev: 229,000)

Little movement here masks a troubling truth: Black unemployment remains higher than national averages, and layoffs in service sectors often disproportionately affect African American workers.

  • S&P Flash U.S. Services PMI (May): 50.8 (Same as Forecast)

Marginal growth in services is a mixed bag. Black-owned service businesses may benefit from stable demand, but credit costs and supply chain inflation continue to eat into profits.

  • S&P Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI (May): 49.8 (Below Forecast)

Contracting manufacturing output threatens industrial jobs—especially for African Americans in urban centers with historic manufacturing legacies and ongoing economic vulnerability.

  • Existing Home Sales (Apr): 4.12M (Prev: 4.02M)

An uptick in sales signals improved market activity, but high interest rates still lock out many African Americans from homeownership, exacerbating wealth inequality.

  • New York Fed President John Williams Speech (2:00 PM ET)

Williams’ second appearance may reinforce key monetary themes. If inflation remains the top concern, interest rates are unlikely to fall—delaying housing and business growth in communities that need it most.


Friday, May 23

  • Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid Speech (9:35 AM ET)

The Kansas City district includes Black communities in the Midwest. A pro-growth message from Schmid could be welcomed news for those hit hardest by disinvestment and population loss.

  • New Home Sales (Apr): 700,000 (Forecast: 724,000)

Falling slightly short of expectations, new home sales remain sensitive to mortgage rates. Limited access to credit and developer capital continues to stall Black homeownership and real estate entrepreneurship.

  • Fed Governor Lisa Cook Speech (12:00 PM ET)

The only African American woman on the Fed Board, Cook consistently advocates for equitable economics. Her remarks will likely address systemic financial exclusion and how monetary tools can close racial wealth gaps.


Sunday, May 25

  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell Commencement Address (2:40 PM ET)

Though ceremonial, Powell’s remarks will be widely covered. If he speaks to opportunity and equity, HBCUs and Black institutions can press for tangible follow-through in monetary policy and research funding.


HBCU Money Insight:
This week offers a mix of sobering and symbolic moments. With inflation slowing but economic indicators weakening, the question remains whether the Fed can pivot without sidelining Black workers, entrepreneurs, and institutions. For HBCUs and Black policymakers, these events are an opportunity to press for policy that doesn’t just stabilize the economy—but transforms who it works for.

This Week in the Economy: May 12–16, 2025

Analyzing the U.S. Economic Calendar Through the Lens of African American Economic Empowerment

Monday, May 12

  • Fed Governor Adriana Kugler Speech (10:25 AM ET)

As one of the more equity-conscious voices at the Fed, Kugler’s comments may offer insight into labor market inclusivity, which could impact hiring strategies for employers disproportionately excluding African Americans.

  • Monthly U.S. Federal Budget (Apr): $256B surplus (Prev: $210B)

A large budget surplus could be used to justify spending cuts or new investments—how these funds are allocated matters for programs that support HBCUs, Black entrepreneurs, and federal housing.


Tuesday, May 13

  • NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (Apr): 95.0 (Prev: 97.4)

A drop in small business optimism could spell trouble for Black-owned businesses, which often lack the capital buffers to weather economic uncertainty and are still recovering from pandemic-era losses.

  • CPI (Apr): +0.2%; Core CPI: +0.3%; Year-over-Year CPI: 2.3%

Persistently high core inflation affects Black households disproportionately due to a greater share of income going toward essentials like housing, transportation, and food.

  • Core CPI YoY: 2.8%

Stubbornly high underlying inflation can delay rate cuts, keeping mortgage and credit costs elevated for African Americans who often face discriminatory lending terms to begin with.


Wednesday, May 14

  • Fed Governor Christopher Waller Speech (5:15 AM ET)

Waller’s hawkish stance could reaffirm a longer path to rate cuts—an outcome that hits first-time Black homeowners and small business borrowers the hardest.

  • Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson Speech (9:10 AM ET)

As the first African American Vice Chair of the Fed, Jefferson’s tone on inflation and employment may subtly signal how equity remains—or doesn’t—in central bank calculus.

  • San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly Speech (5:40 PM ET)

Daly often focuses on labor dynamics; her speech may touch on wage growth disparities affecting marginalized workers, particularly in low-wage West Coast sectors with high Black labor participation.


Thursday, May 15

  • Initial Jobless Claims (May 10): 227,000 (Prev: 228,000)

Stable jobless claims offer some reassurance, but national averages often hide the reality of structurally higher unemployment among African Americans.

  • Retail Sales (Apr): +0.1%; Minus Autos: +0.3%

Weak retail sales growth could mean more economic pressure on Black-owned consumer-facing businesses already operating on slim margins.

  • PPI and Core PPI (Apr): +0.3%

Rising input costs will likely squeeze small Black manufacturers and food service providers who lack bargaining power or scale to pass costs to consumers.

  • Empire State Manufacturing Survey: -8.0 | Philly Fed Survey: -10.0

Negative regional manufacturing data signals contraction—a concern for Black industrial workers in Northeast metro areas and historically Black manufacturing communities.

  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell Speech (8:40 AM ET)

Powell’s remarks could influence rate outlooks for the summer—any resistance to easing could prolong financial constraints for HBCUs, Black mortgage borrowers, and startup financing.

  • Industrial Production (Apr): +0.1% | Capacity Utilization: 77.9%

Flat production and utilization may reflect sluggish economic momentum—bad news for African American labor tied to logistics, warehousing, and light industry.

  • Business Inventories (Mar): +0.2% | Home Builder Confidence Index (May): 40

Builders’ low confidence reflects high rates and material costs—both barriers to increasing Black homeownership and real estate entrepreneurship.

  • Fed Governor Michael Barr Speech (2:05 PM ET)

Barr’s speech on regulation could hold implications for Black banking institutions and credit access—especially relevant for CDFIs and MDIs (minority depository institutions).


Friday, May 16

  • Import Price Index (Apr): -0.4% | Minus Fuel: TBD

Lower import prices could ease inflation pressures slightly, but often offer limited direct benefit to African American consumers who are less engaged in the import/export economy.

  • Housing Starts: 1.36M | Building Permits: 1.45M

While housing construction remains steady, permits falling slightly could indicate future slowing—bad news for Black contractors, developers, and first-time homebuyers seeking new inventory.

  • Consumer Sentiment (Prelim, May): 53.0 (Prev: 52.2)

Consumer confidence remains low, and for African Americans—who already face economic pessimism due to historical exclusion—the weak sentiment may translate into reduced spending and investment hesitation.

African America’s April 2025 Jobs Report – 6.3%

Overall Unemployment: 4.2%

African America: 6.3%

Latino America: 5.2%

European America: 3.8%

Asian America: 3.0%

Analysis: European Americans unemployment rate rises slightly to 3.8 percent. Asian Americans decreased 50 basis points and Latino Americans increased 10 basis points from March, respectively. African America’s unemployment rate increased for the third straight month with a 10 basis points from March. African, European, and Latino Americans unemployment rates are at their highest over the past five months.

AFRICAN AMERICAN EMPLOYMENT REVIEW

AFRICAN AMERICAN MEN: 

Unemployment Rate – 5.6%

Participation Rate – 69.2%

Employed – 9,918,000

Unemployed – 586,000

African American Men (AAM) saw a decrease in their unemployment rate by 50 basis points in April. The group had a negligible decrease in their participation rate in April by 10 basis points. African American Men added 48,000 jobs in April and saw their unemployed drop by 55,000.

AFRICAN AMERICAN WOMEN: 

Unemployment Rate – 6.1%

Participation Rate – 61.2%

Employed – 10,262,000

Unemployed – 663,000

African American Women saw an increase by 100 basis points in April. The group increased their participation rate in April by 30 basis points. African American Women saw lost 38,000 jobs in April and saw their unmployed increase by 106,000. The number of African American Women employed is at a five month low and number of unemployed at a five month high.

AFRICAN AMERICAN TEENAGERS:

Unemployment Rate – 19.6%

Participation Rate – 28.3%

Employed – 610,000

Unemployed – 149,000

African American Teenagers unemployment rate decreased by 120 basis points. The group saw their participation rate decreased by 260 basis points in April. African American Teenagers saw their lost 45,000 jobs in April and saw their number of unemployed also decrease 23,000.

African American Men-Women Job Gap: African American Women currently have 344,000 more jobs than African American Men in April. This is a decrease from 430,000 in March. For the second straight month, this is the lowest ever reported gap by HBCU Money since we began tracking the data.

CONCLUSION: The overall economy added 177,000 jobs in April while African America lost 36,000 jobs. African American Women have shedded 304,000 jobs since February dropping their employed to the lowest number in the past five months for the second straight month. From New York Times, “U.S. employers added 177,000 jobs in April, the Labor Department reported on Friday. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2 percent. Both numbers, which demonstrate that the U.S. labor market remains in good condition, are based on surveys taken in the immediate wake of the Trump administration’s move in early April to institute the highest level of tariffs on imports since the 1930s. The gain extended the streak of U.S. job growth to 52 months.”

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

This Week in the Economy: May 5–9, 2025

Analyzing the U.S. Economic Calendar Through the Lens of African American Economic Empowerment

Monday, May 5

  • S&P Final U.S. Services PMI (Apr): 51.0 (Prev: 51.4)
  • ISM Services Index (Apr): 50.4% (Prev: 50.8%)

A cooling services sector raises concerns for Black-owned businesses and workers concentrated in service-based industries. Marginal growth may mean tighter margins and slower hiring, especially in personal care, retail, and small hospitality—fields where many African American entrepreneurs and employees operate.


Tuesday, May 6

  • U.S. Trade Deficit (Mar): -$136.0B (Prev: -$122.7B)

The growing trade deficit highlights America’s deepening reliance on imports, reinforcing structural challenges for domestic manufacturing. This imbalance is particularly troubling for aspiring Black manufacturers and export-driven enterprises that struggle to compete with cheaper foreign supply chains and lack equitable access to capital or infrastructure.


Wednesday, May 7

  • FOMC Meeting & Fed Chair Powell Press Conference
  • Consumer Credit (Mar): $11.0B (Prev: -$800M)

The Federal Reserve’s direction this week is critical. Interest rate policy affects African American households disproportionately, with higher borrowing costs hitting hardest among those with lower credit scores and less generational wealth. A rise in consumer credit signals that families—many Black households included—may be increasingly relying on debt to maintain basic living standards amid inflation. The burden of debt is rising, not falling.


Thursday, May 8

  • Initial Jobless Claims (May 3): 230,000 (Prev: 241,000)
  • U.S. Productivity (Q1): -0.5% (Forecast: +1.5%)
  • Wholesale Inventories (Mar): +0.5% (Prev: +0.3%)

Jobless claims are stable, but national figures obscure racial disparities. Black unemployment remains consistently higher than average. Meanwhile, negative productivity numbers may point to slower wage growth—again affecting African American workers in roles offering limited career mobility. Rising wholesale inventories suggest slowing consumer demand, which could hit Black-owned consumer goods businesses that often operate without deep cash reserves.


Friday, May 9

  • Fed Governor Lisa Cook Speech (6:45 AM ET)
  • Multiple Fed Speakers Throughout Day

All eyes will be on Lisa Cook, the first Black woman on the Fed’s Board of Governors. Her remarks may provide valuable insight into how the central bank views labor market equity and inflation’s disproportionate impact on communities of color. The deluge of Fed speeches will shape interest rate sentiment and financial market reactions—affecting everything from mortgage rates for HBCU alumni to capital access for Black banks, credit unions, and small businesses.


HBCU Money Perspective:
This week’s economic events carry clear signals for the African American economy. Slower service sector growth, rising debt reliance, and stagnant productivity reinforce the need for systemic change—particularly in access to capital, support for Black manufacturing, and inclusive monetary policy. As Fed policy direction becomes clearer, HBCUs, Black-owned financial institutions, and policy advocates must prepare to assertively engage with these shifts to protect and grow Black wealth.

Student Loans and Tax Credits: A Creative Plan to Solve the Student Loan Crisis

“A hunch is creativity trying to tell you something.” – Frank Capra

Once upon a time in the bustling town of Gradsville, there lived a recent college graduate named Tim. Armed with a shiny diploma and a mountain of student loans, Tim was ready to take on the world, or so he thought. After months of job hunting, he finally landed a gig at a local coffee shop, where he expertly crafted lattes while dreaming of his future as a high-powered executive.

One fateful morning, as he was frothing milk, Tim received an email from his loan servicer. The subject line read: “Your Student Loan Repayment Starts Now!” His heart raced. He opened the email, and there it was: a number so big it could compete with the national debt. Tim squinted at the screen, convinced it was a prank. “This must be a mistake!” he muttered, spilling a little espresso on his apron.

Determined to tackle the situation, he decided to devise a plan. Tim figured if he couldn’t pay his loans, he might as well make the most of his situation. So, he took his trusty old bicycle, painted it bright pink, and outfitted it with a sign reading, “Will Work for Student Loan Payments!” He rode around town, ringing a tiny bell and offering to do odd jobs for anyone willing to pay him in cash.

At first, the townsfolk were amused. Mrs. Jenkins, the elderly lady down the street, hired him to weed her garden. Tim spent hours pulling weeds, but when he presented her with the bill, she handed him a cookie instead. “This is for the effort, dear,” she said sweetly.

Undeterred, Tim pressed on. He mowed lawns, walked dogs, and even became a local celebrity for his “Bicycle Karaoke” sessions, where he belted out off-key renditions of pop songs while pedaling through the park. “I will survive!” he sang, as people threw coins into his basket.

But as the days turned into weeks, Tim realized he was raking in more laughs than cash. One evening, after a particularly exhausting day, he collapsed on his couch, exhausted and broke. Just then, his phone buzzed. It was an alert from his loan servicer: “Your payment is due tomorrow!”

In a moment of desperation, Tim decided to get creative. He hosted a “Loan Repayment Comedy Show” at the coffee shop, charging admission and promising a night of laughter. The townsfolk packed the place, eager to see the local hero make fun of his financial woes. Tim took the stage, and with each joke, he poked fun at his debt, his job, and even his pink bicycle.

By the end of the night, he had raised enough money to make his first payment. The crowd cheered, and Tim realized something important: while student loans were a burden, laughter was the best way to lighten the load.

With a new plan in mind, he turned his bike into a mobile comedy machine, spreading joy and occasionally collecting spare change. And just like that, Tim learned that sometimes, the best way to deal with life’s challenges is to find humor in them—even if it involves a pink bicycle and a lot of bad singing!

In a landscape where the burden of student debt looms over millions of Americans, I offer a glimmer of hope with an innovative proposal. Tax Credits. The creative use of tax credits can be designed to alleviate the financial strain of student loans. 

The cost of higher education continues to soar. As of 2025 higher education costs are nearly $35,000 per year for private institutions and over $10,000 for public universities. Over 45 million borrowers now collectively owe over $1.7 trillion in student debt. This staggering figure has become a significant hurdle for graduates entering the workforce, hindering their ability to invest in homes, start businesses, and contribute to local economies.

What exactly is the problem?

The student loan crisis has reached critical levels. According to the Federal Reserve, approximately one in five borrowers is in default or delinquency, while the average monthly payment for federal student loans hovers around $400. For many, this payment is a substantial chunk of their income, especially for young professionals just starting their careers. The implications extend beyond individual borrowers; they ripple through the economy, stifling growth and innovation. We are currently bordering on student loans reaching levels where they pose systemic risk to the entire system.

The proposed solution is tax credits for individuals and institutions.

To address this escalating issue, a two-pronged solution is proposed: tax credits for individuals repaying student loans and tax credits for institutions that implement aggressive debt reduction initiatives.

1.  Tax Credits for Individuals: This initiative would provide borrowers with a tax credit for every dollar they pay toward their student loans. Currently only student loan interest is tax deductible up to $2,500 per year. Under this new proposal full student loan payments become tax deductible. For example, someone with a $400 a month student loan payment will pay $4,800 in a full tax year. That $4,800 becomes a tax credit that can be used to lower their income tax burden. This would not only ease the financial burden but also encourage timely repayments, ultimately reducing the total outstanding debt. 


2. Additional Tax Credits for Individual payments to the loans of others. Under this new tax provision taxpayers who actively make student loan payments on behalf of other student loan holders can also receive a dollar-for-dollar tax credit.

3. Tax Credits for Private Entities: By aligning private institutional interests with the economic well-being of the public, private institutions would be motivated to contribute to the solution of student loan debt. Imagine Apple or JP Morgan deciding to allocate several billion a year to paying student loans of private citizens in exchange for tax credits. If the top 200 companies in the S&P 500 committed $1 billion each year to paying student loans it would mean that over a 10 year stretch nearly all student loans can be eliminated. Imagine a highly educated populace without the burden of student loan debt.

There are major benefits across the board.

This solution has the potential to benefit various stakeholders, including the wealthy, corporations, higher education institutions and local and state economies.

Wealthy individuals could see tax deductions that encourage more investment into the broader economy with the new capital. Simultaneously they also can benefit from a more educated workforce that drives productivity and innovation into the future.

Corporations would gain from a more skilled labor pool without the financial burden of student debt hindering employees’ productivity. Companies could also leverage tax credits to invest in employee education programs, enhancing workforce skills while reducing tax liabilities.

Higher Education Institutions benefit through potential students and current students now knowing that they can comfortably pursue educational goals without the fear of post graduate debt crippling their ability to perform in the labor force.

Local and state economies would see a revival as graduates with reduced debt would have more disposable income to spend on housing, goods, and services. This consumption can lead to job creation and increased tax revenues, offsetting some of the initial losses from the tax credits.

Like most policy shifts there will be opposition.

Despite its potential benefits, this proposal would likely face opposition from several parties. Conservative fiscal policymakers may argue that tax credits could lead to significant revenue losses for the federal government, exacerbating the national debt.  From a social standpoint there is bound to be criticisms of unfairness from individuals that did not attend college. Additionally, some economists may present a potential moral hazard in the form of people focusing too much on education and delaying real world labor pursuit. This has the potential to slow the proliferation of qualified labor into the workforce.

Estimating Revenue Loss for the Federal Government

Implementing such a tax credit system is not without its costs. Estimates suggest that the federal government could lose approximately $20 billion annually in tax revenue if the credits are widely adopted. This figure reflects both the individual tax relief provided to individuals and the institutional incentives for corporations. While this loss could raise concerns about funding for other critical programs, proponents will likely argue that the long-term economic benefits of a more educated populace and a healthy economy would outweigh the initial financial drawbacks.

In conclusion, the proposal for tax credits aimed at alleviating the student loan crisis presents a promising solution to a pressing problem. By aligning the interests of individuals, corporations, and the economy, this approach could pave the way for a brighter future, where education is an investment rather than a burden. As the conversation around student debt continues, it is crucial to explore innovative solutions that can lead to systemic change.