Monthly Archives: May 2025

Analyzing the U.S. Economic Calendar Through the Lens of African American Economic Empowerment

Monday, May 12

• Fed Governor Adriana Kugler Speech (10:25 AM ET)

As one of the more equity-conscious voices at the Fed, Kugler’s comments may offer insight into labor market inclusivity, which could impact hiring strategies for employers disproportionately excluding African Americans.

• Monthly U.S. Federal Budget (Apr): $256B surplus (Prev: $210B)

A large budget surplus could be used to justify spending cuts or new investments—how these funds are allocated matters for programs that support HBCUs, Black entrepreneurs, and federal housing.

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Tuesday, May 13

• NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (Apr): 95.0 (Prev: 97.4)

A drop in small business optimism could spell trouble for Black-owned businesses, which often lack the capital buffers to weather economic uncertainty and are still recovering from pandemic-era losses.

• CPI (Apr): +0.2%; Core CPI: +0.3%; Year-over-Year CPI: 2.3%

Persistently high core inflation affects Black households disproportionately due to a greater share of income going toward essentials like housing, transportation, and food.

• Core CPI YoY: 2.8%

Stubbornly high underlying inflation can delay rate cuts, keeping mortgage and credit costs elevated for African Americans who often face discriminatory lending terms to begin with.

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Wednesday, May 14

• Fed Governor Christopher Waller Speech (5:15 AM ET)

Waller’s hawkish stance could reaffirm a longer path to rate cuts—an outcome that hits first-time Black homeowners and small business borrowers the hardest.

• Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson Speech (9:10 AM ET)

As the first African American Vice Chair of the Fed, Jefferson’s tone on inflation and employment may subtly signal how equity remains—or doesn’t—in central bank calculus.

• San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly Speech (5:40 PM ET)

Daly often focuses on labor dynamics; her speech may touch on wage growth disparities affecting marginalized workers, particularly in low-wage West Coast sectors with high Black labor participation.

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Thursday, May 15

• Initial Jobless Claims (May 10): 227,000 (Prev: 228,000)

Stable jobless claims offer some reassurance, but national averages often hide the reality of structurally higher unemployment among African Americans.

• Retail Sales (Apr): +0.1%; Minus Autos: +0.3%

Weak retail sales growth could mean more economic pressure on Black-owned consumer-facing businesses already operating on slim margins.

• PPI and Core PPI (Apr): +0.3%

Rising input costs will likely squeeze small Black manufacturers and food service providers who lack bargaining power or scale to pass costs to consumers.

• Empire State Manufacturing Survey: -8.0 | Philly Fed Survey: -10.0

Negative regional manufacturing data signals contraction—a concern for Black industrial workers in Northeast metro areas and historically Black manufacturing communities.

• Fed Chair Jerome Powell Speech (8:40 AM ET)

Powell’s remarks could influence rate outlooks for the summer—any resistance to easing could prolong financial constraints for HBCUs, Black mortgage borrowers, and startup financing.

• Industrial Production (Apr): +0.1% | Capacity Utilization: 77.9%

Flat production and utilization may reflect sluggish economic momentum—bad news for African American labor tied to logistics, warehousing, and light industry.

• Business Inventories (Mar): +0.2% | Home Builder Confidence Index (May): 40

Builders’ low confidence reflects high rates and material costs—both barriers to increasing Black homeownership and real estate entrepreneurship.

• Fed Governor Michael Barr Speech (2:05 PM ET)

Barr’s speech on regulation could hold implications for Black banking institutions and credit access—especially relevant for CDFIs and MDIs (minority depository institutions).

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Friday, May 16

• Import Price Index (Apr): -0.4% | Minus Fuel: TBD

Lower import prices could ease inflation pressures slightly, but often offer limited direct benefit to African American consumers who are less engaged in the import/export economy.

• Housing Starts: 1.36M | Building Permits: 1.45M

While housing construction remains steady, permits falling slightly could indicate future slowing—bad news for Black contractors, developers, and first-time homebuyers seeking new inventory.

• Consumer Sentiment (Prelim, May): 53.0 (Prev: 52.2)

Consumer confidence remains low, and for African Americans—who already face economic pessimism due to historical exclusion—the weak sentiment may translate into reduced spending and investment hesitation.