Category Archives: Economics

African America’s March Jobs Report – 10.1%

jobs

Overall Unemployment: 5.5% (5.5%)

African America Unemployment: 10.1% (10.4%)

Latino America Unemployment: 6.8% (6.6%)

European America Unemployment: 4.7% (4.7%)

Asian America Unemployment: 3.2% (4.0%)

Previous month in parentheses.

Analysis: Overall the unemployment rate went unchanged. Latino America was the only group with a rising unemployment rate of 20 basis points. Asian America retains America’s lowest unemployment rate, tightening an even firmer grip with an 80 basis point drop. African America saw a decrease of 40 basis points and remains the only group with double digit unemployment.

African American Male Unemployment: 10.0% (10.4%)

African American Female Unemployment: 9.2% (8.9%)

African American Teenage Unemployment: 25.0% (30.0%)

African American Male Participation: 67.2% (67.3%)

African American Female Participation: 61.4% (61.3%)

African American Teenage Participation: 25.7% (29.1%)

Previous month in parentheses.

Analysis: African American males saw a 40 basis point decline in unemployment and a 10 basis point drop in participation rate. African American females experienced a rise in their unemployment rate 30 basis points, but maintain their single digit unemployment rate. They also got an uptick in their participation rate 10 basis points. African American teenagers had their unemployment rate decline by 500 basis points, but also their participation rate dropped a precipitously 340 basis points.

CONCLUSION: The overall economy added 126 000 jobs in March. Wages also saw a slight increase of 0.3 percent, overall. After a year of average job gains for the country at almost 270 000 jobs per month, this marks an over 50 percent decline and sparks concern among many economist. African America added only 7 000 jobs, bringing four straight months of five figure job gains to a screeching halt. The albatross are the teenagers who took a massive hit in employed numbers and their participation rate, dragging down the overall group. At current labor force levels, African America needs 40 000 jobs to obtain 9.9 percent unemployment. With weakening economy data that maybe harder to accomplish as growth both domestically and internationally appears to be grinding along.

Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s March 2015 Press Conference (Video)

“In other words, just because we removed the word “patient” from our statement does not mean we are going to be impatient.” – Chairwoman Janet Yellen

One of the key points that Chairwoman Yellen points to is that despite a 2.5 percent growth of GDP in 2014 there appears to be a slowing of growth to start 2015. A sign that while the stock market has been robust the real economy has struggled to pick up as signaled by sluggish consumer spending indicators. Housing and export growth also appears to show rising weakness ahead. Estimates for unemployment over the next two years by the FOMC are expected to come in at 5.0 to 5.2 percent range.

Chairwoman Yellen also appeared to confirm what most economist are predicting in terms of an interest rate hike coming in June if conditions at a minimum hold. For the full statement and the Q&A that follows click on the video below.

Unemployment Rate By HBCU State – January 2015

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STATES WITH RISING UNEMPLOYMENT: 9

STATES WITH DECLINING UNEMPLOYMENT: 12

STATES WITH UNCHANGED UNEMPLOYMENT: 3

MEDIAN UNEMPLOYMENT (HBCU TERRITORIES) – 5.7%

LOWEST: OKLAHOMA – 3.9%

HIGHEST – DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA – 7.7%

STATE – UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (PREVIOUS)*

ALABAMA –  6.0% (5.7%)

ARKANSAS – 5.6% (5.7%)

CALIFORNIA – 6.9% (7.0%)

DELAWARE – 5.0% (5.4%)

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA – 7.7% (7.3%)

FLORIDA – 5.7% (5.6%)

GEORGIA – 6.4% (6.9%)

ILLINOIS – 6.1% (6.2%)

KENTUCKY – 5.5% (5.7%)

LOUISIANA – 7.0% (6.7%)

MARYLAND – 5.5% (5.5%)

MASSACHUSETTS – 5.1% (5.5%)

MICHIGAN – 6.3% (6.3%)

MISSISSIPPI – 7.1% (7.2%)

MISSOURI –  5.5% (5.4%)

NEW YORK – 5.8% (5.8%)

NORTH CAROLINA – 5.4% (5.5%)

OHIO – 5.1% (4.8%)

OKLAHOMA – 3.9% (4.2%)

PENNSYLVANIA – 5.1% (4.8%)

SOUTH CAROLINA – 6.6% (6.5%)

TENNESSEE – 6.7% (6.5%)

TEXAS – 4.4% (4.6%)

VIRGINIA – 4.7% (4.8%)

*Previous month in parentheses.

African America’s February Jobs Report – 10.4%

jobs

Overall Unemployment: 5.5% (5.7%)

African America Unemployment: 10.4% (10.3%)

Latino America Unemployment: 6.6% (6.7%)

European America Unemployment: 4.7% (4.9%)

Asian America Unemployment: 4.0% (4.0%)

Previous month in parentheses.

Analysis: Overall the unemployment rate drops 20 basis points. European and Latino America see drops of 20 and 10 basis points, respectively. Asian America retains America’s lowest unemployment rate, although unchanged from last month. African America saw an increase of 10 basis points and remains the only group with double digit unemployment.

African American Male Unemployment: 10.4% (10.6%)

African American Female Unemployment: 8.9% (8.7%)

African American Teenage Unemployment: 30.0% (29.7%)

African American Male Participation: 67.3% (67.1%)

African American Female Participation: 61.3% (61.3%)

African American Teenage Participation: 29.1% (27.9%)

Previous month in parentheses.

Analysis: African American males saw a 20 basis point decline in their unemployment rate and 20 basis point rise in their participation rate. A rare combination of decreasing unemployment rate and rising participation rate. African American females saw a 20 percent rise in their unemployment rate with an unchanged participation rate. African American teenagers saw a 30 basis point rise in their unemployment rate and 120 basis point rise in their participation rate. African American females appear to have firmly entrenched their single digit unemployment rate.

CONCLUSION: The overall economy added 295 000 jobs in February. Higher than economists forecast of 235 000 for the month. African America added 51 000 jobs in the month of February. The second largest job growth jump month to month over the past five months. In a show of optimism, the African American labor force increased by 61 000, which is the largest increase over the past five months and the primary reason why there was an increase in the unemployment rate.  The question is it really optimism or just hopefulness. As a whole, African America still needs to add 88 000 jobs at current labor force levels just to reach single digit unemployment.

Unemployment Rate By HBCU State – December 2014

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STATES WITH RISING UNEMPLOYMENT: 1

STATES WITH DECLINING UNEMPLOYMENT: 23

STATES WITH UNCHANGED UNEMPLOYMENT: 0

MEDIAN UNEMPLOYMENT (HBCU TERRITORIES) – 5.7%

LOWEST: OKLAHOMA – 4.2%

HIGHEST – DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA – 7.3%

STATE – UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (PREVIOUS)*

ALABAMA –  5.7% (6.0%)

ARKANSAS – 5.7% (5.8%)

CALIFORNIA – 7.0% (7.2%)

DELAWARE – 5.4% (6.0%)

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA – 7.3% (7.4%)

FLORIDA – 5.6% (5.8%)

GEORGIA – 6.9% (7.2%)

ILLINOIS – 6.2% (6.4%)

KENTUCKY – 5.7% (6.2%)

LOUISIANA – 6.7% (6.5%)

MARYLAND – 5.5% (5.6%)

MASSACHUSETTS – 5.5% (5.8%)

MICHIGAN – 6.3% (6.7%)

MISSISSIPPI – 7.2% (7.3%)

MISSOURI –  5.4% (5.6%)

NEW YORK – 5.8% (5.9%)

NORTH CAROLINA – 5.5% (5.8%)

OHIO – 4.8% (5.0%)

OKLAHOMA – 4.2% (4.4%)

PENNSYLVANIA – 4.8% (5.1%)

SOUTH CAROLINA – 6.5% (6.7%)

TENNESSEE – 6.5% (6.8%)

TEXAS – 4.6% (4.9%)

VIRGINIA – 4.8% (5.0%)

*Previous month in parentheses.