Category Archives: Economics

Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s June 2016 Press Conference (Video)

Posted on July 19, 2016 by | Leave a comment

Excerpt from June Press Conference with Chairwoman Janet Yellen:

“While the general picture of the labor market is largely positive, some people are still struggling. Unemployment rates rose more during the recession for African Americans and Hispanics than for the nation overall, and even though those rates have also come down by more during the economic expansion, unemployment remains higher for these groups. Unfortunately, those gaps have not narrowed noticeably relative to where they were before the recession. Unemployment rates for young African American and Hispanic men without a college degree remain especially high, and one important benefit from further improvement in the labor market would be increased job opportunities for these men and other groups that currently still experience high unemployment.”

Full Press Conference & FOMC Statement:

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Unemployment Rate By HBCU State – May 2016

Posted on July 13, 2016 by | Leave a comment

Screen Shot 2016-07-12 at 3.52.21 PM

STATES WITH RISING UNEMPLOYMENT: 2

STATES WITH DECLINING UNEMPLOYMENT: 17

STATES WITH UNCHANGED UNEMPLOYMENT: 5

LOWEST: ARKANSAS & VIRGINIA – 3.8%

HIGHEST – ILLINOIS – 6.4%

STATE – UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (PREVIOUS)*

ALABAMA –  6.1% (6.1%)

ARKANSAS – 3.8% (3.9%)

CALIFORNIA – 5.2% (5.3%)

DELAWARE – 4.1% (4.2%)

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA – 6.1% (6.4%)

FLORIDA – 4.7% (4.8%)

GEORGIA – 5.3% (5.5%)

ILLINOIS – 6.4% (6.6%)

KENTUCKY – 5.1% (5.3%)

LOUISIANA – 6.3% (6.3%)

MARYLAND – 4.5% (4.6%)

MASSACHUSETTS – 4.2% (4.2%)

MICHIGAN – 4.7% (4.8%)

MISSISSIPPI – 5.8% (6.0%)

MISSOURI –  4.3% (4.3%)

NEW YORK – 4.7% (4.9%)

NORTH CAROLINA – 5.1% (5.4%)

OHIO – 5.1% (5.2%)

OKLAHOMA – 4.7% (4.5%)

PENNSYLVANIA – 5.5% (5.3%)

SOUTH CAROLINA – 5.6% (5.8%)

TENNESSEE – 4.1% (4.3%)

TEXAS – 4.4% (4.4%)

VIRGINIA – 3.8% (3.9%)

*Previous month in parentheses.

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African America’s June Jobs Report – 8.6%

Posted on July 11, 2016 by | Leave a comment

jobs

Overall Unemployment: 4.9% (4.7%)

African America Unemployment: 8.6% (8.2%)

Latino America Unemployment: 5.8% (5.6%)

European America Unemployment: 4.4% (4.1%)

Asian America Unemployment: 3.5% (4.1%)

Previous month in parentheses.

Analysis: Overall unemployment rose 20 basis points. All groups except Asian America saw a rise in their unemployment rate, who saw a 60 basis point decline in their unemployment rate. African America led the way with the largest increase of 40 basis points, followed by European America’s 30 basis points, and Latino America’s 20 basis points.

African American Male Unemployment: 8.2% (7.6%)

African American Female Unemployment: 7.3% (7.4%)

African American Teenage Unemployment: 31.2% (27.1%)

African American Male Participation: 67.8% (67.1%)

African American Female Participation: 60.9% (61.0%)

African American Teenage Participation: 29.2% (28.7%)

Analysis: African American men had a increase of 60 basis points in their unemployment rate, but also experienced a 70 basis point increase in their participation rate. African American women had a decrease of 10 basis points in their unemployment rate, but a 10 basis point decrease in their participation rate. African American teenagers had an increase of 410 basis points in their unemployment rate, but only experienced a 50 basis point increase in their participation rate.

CONCLUSION: The overall economy added 287 000 jobs in June. African America added only 32 000 jobs in June, making May look like an anomaly when African America gained more jobs than the overall economy. It is hard to be overly excited about June’s numbers after May produced only 38 000 jobs overall. A student who gets a 100 and a 0 on test, still has a F average. However, if July delivers a modestly decent number, it could allow the Federal Reserve to put a rate hike back in play for September, which we are still not sure the economy or market is ready for, but desperately needs to heal itself from a decade of fictional interest rates. The fictional interest rates have killed lending and savings and therefore hampered the creation of small business creation in the country. Those are long-term issues though, but issues nonetheless. In the short term, cultural backlash against African America may have some negative labor impact for the rest of the year given African America’s employment dependency on others.

African America needs to create 721 000 jobs to match the nation’s overall unemployment rate.

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Unemployment Rate By HBCU State – April 2016

Posted on June 7, 2016 by | Leave a comment

Screen Shot 2016-06-07 at 5.40.56 PM

STATES WITH RISING UNEMPLOYMENT: 9

STATES WITH DECLINING UNEMPLOYMENT: 13

STATES WITH UNCHANGED UNEMPLOYMENT: 2

LOWEST: ARKANSAS & VIRGINIA – 3.9%

HIGHEST – ILLINOIS – 6.6%

STATE – UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (PREVIOUS)*

ALABAMA –  6.1% (6.2%)

ARKANSAS – 3.9% (4.0%)

CALIFORNIA – 5.3% (5.4%)

DELAWARE – 4.2% (4.4%)

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA – 6.4% (6.5%)

FLORIDA – 4.8% (4.9%)

GEORGIA – 5.5% (5.5%)

ILLINOIS – 6.6% (6.5%)

KENTUCKY – 5.3% (5.6%)

LOUISIANA – 6.3% (6.1%)

MARYLAND – 4.6% (4.7%)

MASSACHUSETTS – 4.2% (4.4%)

MICHIGAN – 4.8% (4.8%)

MISSISSIPPI – 6.0% (6.3%)

MISSOURI –  4.3% (4.2%)

NEW YORK – 4.9% (4.8%)

NORTH CAROLINA – 5.4% (5.5%)

OHIO – 5.2% (5.1%)

OKLAHOMA – 4.5% (4.4%)

PENNSYLVANIA – 5.3% (4.9%)

SOUTH CAROLINA – 5.8% (5.7%)

TENNESSEE – 4.3% (4.5%)

TEXAS – 4.4% (4.3%)

VIRGINIA – 3.9% (4.0%)

*Previous month in parentheses.

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African America’s May Jobs Report – 8.2%

Posted on June 6, 2016 by | Leave a comment

jobs

Overall Unemployment: 4.7% (5.0%)

African America Unemployment: 8.2% (8.8%)

Latino America Unemployment: 5.6% (6.1%)

European America Unemployment: 4.1% (4.3%)

Asian America Unemployment: 4.1% (3.8%)

Previous month in parentheses.

Analysis: Overall unemployment drops 30 basis points. All groups saw a drop in their unemployment rate, except for Asian America who saw a 30 basis point increase. African America led the way with the largest decrease of 60 basis points, followed by Latino America’s 50 basis points, and European America’s 20 basis points.

African American Male Unemployment: 7.6% (9.5%)

African American Female Unemployment: 7.4% (6.9%)

African American Teenage Unemployment: 27.1% (26.0%)

African American Male Participation: 67.1% (68.1%)

African American Female Participation: 61.0% (60.2%)

African American Teenage Participation: 28.7% (29.2%)

Analysis:African American men had a decrease of 190 basis points in their unemployment rate, but also experienced a 100 basis point drop in their participation rate. African American women had an increase of 50 basis points in their unemployment rate, but an 80 basis point increase in their participation rate. African American teenagers had an increase of 110 basis points in their unemployment rate, but experienced a 50 basis point drop.

CONCLUSION: The overall economy added 38 000 jobs in May. Repeat, the United States economy added a net of only 38 000 jobs in May. African America added 122 000 jobs in May, an unprecedented moment where African America job growth outpaced the country. The expected job growth for the overall economy was supposed to be 162 000 jobs. This number may put an absolute halt to the Federal Reserve’s hinted expectation of a rate hike in June or July, which many investors have baked into the market. Since HBCU Money inception of the African American Jobs Report never has African America added more jobs than the overall economy. Now that it has, what exactly might this tell us? It may tell us that since African America has the lowest median income of any group of workers, companies are continuing to a lower-skilled workforce in more and more areas. Despite the additional jobs, this number only gets African America back to where it was five months ago when it began a precipitous job decline trend, this obviously putting an abrupt halt to it. It is hard to imagine a scenario where this remains a forward trend, but we will have to wait to see if this month proves to be an outlier all around or perhaps a pivot for African America’s economy, and for once when others are catching a cold, we do not catch pneumonia.

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Posted in Economics

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