Analyzing the U.S. Economic Calendar Through the Lens of African American Economic Empowerment
Monday, May 12
- Fed Governor Adriana Kugler Speech (10:25 AM ET)
As one of the more equity-conscious voices at the Fed, Kugler’s comments may offer insight into labor market inclusivity, which could impact hiring strategies for employers disproportionately excluding African Americans.
- Monthly U.S. Federal Budget (Apr): $256B surplus (Prev: $210B)
A large budget surplus could be used to justify spending cuts or new investments—how these funds are allocated matters for programs that support HBCUs, Black entrepreneurs, and federal housing.
Tuesday, May 13
- NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (Apr): 95.0 (Prev: 97.4)
A drop in small business optimism could spell trouble for Black-owned businesses, which often lack the capital buffers to weather economic uncertainty and are still recovering from pandemic-era losses.
- CPI (Apr): +0.2%; Core CPI: +0.3%; Year-over-Year CPI: 2.3%
Persistently high core inflation affects Black households disproportionately due to a greater share of income going toward essentials like housing, transportation, and food.
- Core CPI YoY: 2.8%
Stubbornly high underlying inflation can delay rate cuts, keeping mortgage and credit costs elevated for African Americans who often face discriminatory lending terms to begin with.
Wednesday, May 14
- Fed Governor Christopher Waller Speech (5:15 AM ET)
Waller’s hawkish stance could reaffirm a longer path to rate cuts—an outcome that hits first-time Black homeowners and small business borrowers the hardest.
- Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson Speech (9:10 AM ET)
As the first African American Vice Chair of the Fed, Jefferson’s tone on inflation and employment may subtly signal how equity remains—or doesn’t—in central bank calculus.
- San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly Speech (5:40 PM ET)
Daly often focuses on labor dynamics; her speech may touch on wage growth disparities affecting marginalized workers, particularly in low-wage West Coast sectors with high Black labor participation.
Thursday, May 15
- Initial Jobless Claims (May 10): 227,000 (Prev: 228,000)
Stable jobless claims offer some reassurance, but national averages often hide the reality of structurally higher unemployment among African Americans.
- Retail Sales (Apr): +0.1%; Minus Autos: +0.3%
Weak retail sales growth could mean more economic pressure on Black-owned consumer-facing businesses already operating on slim margins.
- PPI and Core PPI (Apr): +0.3%
Rising input costs will likely squeeze small Black manufacturers and food service providers who lack bargaining power or scale to pass costs to consumers.
- Empire State Manufacturing Survey: -8.0 | Philly Fed Survey: -10.0
Negative regional manufacturing data signals contraction—a concern for Black industrial workers in Northeast metro areas and historically Black manufacturing communities.
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell Speech (8:40 AM ET)
Powell’s remarks could influence rate outlooks for the summer—any resistance to easing could prolong financial constraints for HBCUs, Black mortgage borrowers, and startup financing.
- Industrial Production (Apr): +0.1% | Capacity Utilization: 77.9%
Flat production and utilization may reflect sluggish economic momentum—bad news for African American labor tied to logistics, warehousing, and light industry.
- Business Inventories (Mar): +0.2% | Home Builder Confidence Index (May): 40
Builders’ low confidence reflects high rates and material costs—both barriers to increasing Black homeownership and real estate entrepreneurship.
- Fed Governor Michael Barr Speech (2:05 PM ET)
Barr’s speech on regulation could hold implications for Black banking institutions and credit access—especially relevant for CDFIs and MDIs (minority depository institutions).
Friday, May 16
- Import Price Index (Apr): -0.4% | Minus Fuel: TBD
Lower import prices could ease inflation pressures slightly, but often offer limited direct benefit to African American consumers who are less engaged in the import/export economy.
- Housing Starts: 1.36M | Building Permits: 1.45M
While housing construction remains steady, permits falling slightly could indicate future slowing—bad news for Black contractors, developers, and first-time homebuyers seeking new inventory.
- Consumer Sentiment (Prelim, May): 53.0 (Prev: 52.2)
Consumer confidence remains low, and for African Americans—who already face economic pessimism due to historical exclusion—the weak sentiment may translate into reduced spending and investment hesitation.
HBCU Money 